The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the lives of millions of Americans, not only in terms of their health and well-being but also in terms of their mobility and relocation choices. A recent analysis of Census Bureau data reveals that Americans have disproportionately moved to states that imposed the fewest and least severe COVID-19 restrictions. In contrast, states that enforced the most stringent and prolonged lockdowns and mandates have suffered significant population losses.
Florida and Texas Lead the Way in Attracting Domestic Migrants
According to the Census Bureau, the net domestic migration data shows how many U.S. residents have moved to a given state, minus the number who moved from that state to elsewhere in the U.S. The data covers the period from the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic was first declared, to the third quarter of 2023, the most recent statistics available.
The data reveals that among large states (those with a population above the 50-state average), the net domestic migration winner over the 13 quarters was Florida. The Sunshine State added a net tally of 819,000 Americans over that span, equivalent to the combined populations of Miami and Orlando. The large-state runner-up was Texas, which added 80 percent as many people as Florida (656,000).
Both Florida and Texas are known for their relatively lax COVID-19 policies, which allow businesses, schools, and churches to remain open with minimal restrictions while respecting the personal choices and freedoms of their residents. These states also offer other benefits, such as lower taxes, warmer weather, and more affordable housing, which may have contributed to their appeal.
California and New York Lose the Most Residents to Other States
On the other hand, the data shows that the states that lost the most residents to other states were California and New York, which both imposed some of the most draconian and longest-lasting COVID-19 measures in the country. California shed 1.2 million people through net domestic outmigration, which is roughly the same as the combined populations of San Francisco and Oakland. New York lost about three-quarters as many people as California.
These trends have persisted over the most recent 12 months of the three-year-plus stretch (from mid-2022 to mid-2023). In that period, Florida remained first, Texas second, New York 49th, and California 50th in net domestic migration.
Many people who left California and New York cited the COVID-19 restrictions as a major factor in their decision, as well as the high cost of living, the high taxes, the poor quality of public services, and the rising crime rates. Some of the most prominent examples of such an exodus include celebrities like Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, and Ben Shapiro, who all moved from California to Texas, as well as thousands of businesses and workers who relocated or expanded to other states.
South Carolina and Idaho Are the Top Destinations for Small-State Migrants
Among small states (those with a population below the 50-state average), the net domestic migration data shows that South Carolina and Idaho were the top destinations for Americans who moved within the country. South Carolina added 248,000 people, while Idaho added 104,000 people over the 13 quarters.
Both South Carolina and Idaho are also among the states that have the least restrictive COVID-19 policies, as well as other advantages such as scenic landscapes, outdoor recreation, and friendly communities. These states also attracted many retirees who sought a more relaxed and affordable lifestyle.
The biggest small-state losers in net domestic migration were Louisiana and Maryland, which both lost more than 100,000 residents to other states. Louisiana was hit hard by the pandemic as well as by natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods, which damaged its infrastructure and economy. Maryland suffered from the high taxes and regulations imposed by its Democratic leadership, as well as from the social unrest and violence that plagued its largest city, Baltimore.
The Implications of Migration Trends for the Future of America
The migration trends revealed by the Census Bureau data have significant implications for the future of America, both politically and economically. The states that gained the most residents from other states will also gain more congressional seats and electoral votes, while the states that lost the most residents will lose some of their political clout and influence. This could shift the balance of power in Washington, as well as in state and local governments, in favor of the states that embraced more freedom and less government intervention during the pandemic.
The migration trends also reflect the preferences and values of millions of Americans, who voted with their feet and chose to live in states that respected their rights and liberties rather than in states that imposed harsh and arbitrary rules and mandates. These Americans also sought to improve their quality of life by moving to states that offered more opportunities, lower costs, and better services. These choices may have long-term consequences for the social and cultural fabric of the nation, as well as for the economic growth and innovation of the different regions.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a catalyst for change and a test of resilience for America. The migration patterns that emerged during this crisis reveal a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of the different states, as well as the hopes and aspirations of the different people. As the pandemic subsides and the nation recovers, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve and shape the future of America.
